Masoud Pezeshkian became Iran’s first reformist president in nearly two decades after defeating Saeed Jalili in a run-off election on July 5th. Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old reformist and cardiac surgeon who gained popularity by challenging the previous regime, won the presidential election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

Many analysts believe that Pezeshkian represents the hopes of millions of Iranians who want less restrictions on social freedoms and a more pragmatic foreign policy. The run-off election was initially viewed as a competitive contest, but Pezeshkian emerged victorious with a significant advantage of nearly three million votes over Saeed Jalili, a conservative and former nuclear negotiator.

As Iran grapples with legitimacy concerns amid a financial downturn, it is expected that Pezeshkian will be able to steer the ship of his nation, which is grappling with numerous domestic and global issues. Besides the many domestic issues facing Iran, Pezeshkian will also have to deal with the changing regional consequences of the conflict in Gaza.

During his campaign, Pezeshkian emphasized the necessity for Iran to change its conservative stances and enhance its relations with the West. He also vowed to ease the persistent internet restrictions and oppose police patrols that enforce the mandatory hijab on women, an important issue in Iran since the passing of Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022.

Pezeshkian was thought to be a critic of Iran’s morality police policy and has repeatedly called for negotiations to renew the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States. However, analysts remain skeptical of his capacity to effect meaningful change within an establishment that is dominated by ultraconservatives.

After the death of Iran’s popular hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash four weeks ago, Mr Pezeshkian’s name appeared on the ballot, shocking even his most committed supporters. Many prominent reformers and moderates had been prevented from standing for the last presidential poll by the powerful body of clerics and jurists that checks candidates’ religious and revolutionary credentials.

However, once his candidacy was approved, Mr. Pezeshkian carefully balanced his promises of transformation with his pledges of loyalty to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the ultimate authority in the country. The fact that Mr. Pezeshkian was allowed to stand could indicate that the Supreme Leader may also be open to softening government policies.

Pezeshkian faces many challenges that are too many to list. He will be confronted with a government that is largely governed by ultraconservative clerics, as well as escalating dissatisfaction with the countries’ regime. On a global scale, there are still controversies regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza, as well as concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. 

Many are curious if a reformist, who is strongly pro-West, will have a significant impact on Iran’s foreign policy, nuclear program, or even its attitude towards its proxies, which surround and lure Israel. Not only that, but is the world truly ready for a more gentle Islamic Republic in Iran? Is Pezeshkian able to achieve what many people expect from him? My answer to that is no, even though it may sound easy. And I will explain why.

The Underlying Issues facing Pezeshkian and Iran

Although Masoud Pezeshkian may be the incoming president of Iran, he may not have the authority to make key decisions. The final authority lies with the ayatollah of Iran (Supreme Leader of Iran), Ali Khamenei, who many consider a pragmatist and one of the most powerful men in Iran.

Over the last 35 years, the Ayatollah has been thought of as the ultimate authority in Iran. Most of the members of the Council of Islamic clerics are hand-picked by him, and they make sure that the government does not depart from its chosen path of Shia theocracy. 

Shia theocracy is an ideology similar to Islamic theocracy, but it follows the religious doctrine of Shia Islam instead of Sunni Islam. Essentially, Shia theocracy is the practice of using Shia Islam in politics. Moreover, in the Iranian system, the president has no power over the military or the Army’s ideological Wing, which is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Given that Pezeshkian will assume the role of Iran’s new president, it is anticipated that he will have a significant impact, at least on an external level, while remaining loyal to the current system. Many political analysts now believe that Iran may be heading towards a softer, gentler Islamic Republic, easing regional tensions and calming some domestic dissatisfaction. 

Pezeshkian will have to deal with the fact that most of the Iranian Parliament is made up of conservative and ultra-conservative members. Some of them can be quite confrontational. One person who comes to mind is the Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who challenged Pezeshkian in the first round, but lost.

Despite his unsuccessful presidential bid, Ghalibaf remains a force to reckon with in Iran. Ghalibaf was considered the preferred candidate by the supreme leader of Iran and even the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to win the recently concluded elections.   

Given this context, everything depends on how relations between the president-elect and the IRGC will play out. The presidency and the IRGC enjoyed excellent relations during the tenure of the late president Ebrahim Raisi.

It was this close bond that resulted in the unprecedented missile and drone attack by the Iranian military on Israel on April 13th and 14th of this year. Now that Pezeshkian is responsible for Iran’s National Security Council, which once launched an attack on Israel, it’s unclear if he’ll be making major decisions there. 

During his campaign, Pezeshkian pledged his support for the lifting of sanctions against Iran through talks with the West. Now that he is president of a nation at the nuclear threshold, the rest of the world will watch him closely. 

The current agreement is irrelevant in the present circumstances, and Iran may need to exhibit greater flexibility to reach a settlement to lift the sanctions. However, Pezeshkian’s hands may be tied due to the immense influence the Iranian supreme leader has in making key decisions.  One thing we can be sure of is that the new leader of Iran will have a lot of work to do.